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Bitcoin could see upward momentum after former President Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran in response to urgent requests from Gulf allies. Oil prices stayed above $100 throughout the week, per The National, with tight supply and war risk keeping the market tense. That $10 billion revenue potential Tehran announced through its Strait of Hormuz shipping strategy, detailed by Decrypt and The National, now converges with these geopolitical dynamics.
Oil Prices Stay Above $100 as Trump Warns Iran Time Is Running Out on Ceasefire Deal
Per the International Energy Agency, global oil reserves remained close to five-year lows as of early Q2 2026. Planned strategic reserve releases proved inadequate to considerably affect market balances. Oil prices held above $100 per barrel for most of the trading week, according to data reported by Cryptonews.net on “Oil Perps Hit $106 on Hyperliquid, Bitcoin Falls Below $77K.” This tight market reflects continued anxiety about the potential closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz — the vital channel for one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Cryptonews.net noted implied oil price volatility climbing to 72%, almost double the prior 90-day norm. Straddle buyers forced spot crude to jump $10 in less than twenty-four hours, before headlines about backchannel talks calmed the rally.
Both Brent and WTI oil futures logged record trading volumes on May 18. Option markets showed traders bracing for another round of price jumps if the ceasefire failed, per cryptonews.net. That persistent $100 oil price acts as a global tax on consumers and businesses.
Bitcoin Plummets to an Intraday Low
Bitcoin plunged to an intraday low of $76,690 on May 18, erasing nearly 12% from the previous two-day high. The sharp drop wiped billions from the total digital asset market capitalization and triggered a wave of liquidations across leveraged crypto positions. The Block noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows during the height of the sell-off, with traders rapidly moving to safer allocations.
Volatility has become the new norm for crypto markets surrounding geopolitical headlines. De-risking cascaded across digital assets as algorithmic traders and institutional desks responded instantly to futures-driven signals. By late US trading, Bitcoin bounced off its lows, supported by powerful buying around $77,000.
$76,690 — Intraday Bitcoin low, May 18
Average Bitcoin network fees spiked to $44 per transaction as urgent demand for settlement climbed worldwide. Iranian Bitcoin transaction volumes hit a record high of $310 million per day by May 18, with local exchanges running at full capacity.
Tehran Says Ships Need Permission to Cross, Under Proposal That Could Generate $10bn in Revenue
Iran’s new maritime framework requires all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to obtain an official certificate from government authorities, with settlement in Bitcoin or considerable stablecoins. According to Iranian officials, Tehran estimates these digital toll and insurance fees could generate $10 billion in annual state revenue if widely adopted. The National details a system where every cargo and energy vessel would pay via crypto wallets to trigger blockchain-based coverage documents. Fees would vary by cargo type and ship size, but even modest charges could scale swiftly with over 20,000 transits per year. Crypto adoption offers powerful workarounds to international banking sanctions, letting Iran collect and move hard assets outside the dollar system. published research shows state regulators believe the system could permanently alter regional trade finance flows toward digital assets, especially if Gulf and Asian importers support the pilot.
$10B — Potential annual revenue, per Tehran
State-linked tech firms will field test pilots with Asian and Middle Eastern shipping consortia in early June 2026, according to The National.
If even a third of annual Strait transits participate, digital certificate revenues could approach $3 billion — a figure with significant fiscal implications for Iran’s government.
Bitcoin System
The National details that Iran’s system, built with a regional consortium, leverages a permissioned blockchain to manage insurance tokens, transit documents, and vessel certifications. The platform manages not only toll payments but also digitally issues and verifies all risk cover in real time. Central Bank of Iran reserves total approximately $2.3 billion in Bitcoin and stablecoins, making it one of the largest sovereign crypto portfolios known, according to The National.
figures show state revenue now flows into these decentralized networks, enabling trade re-engagement across Asian supply chains and beyond SWIFT barriers. The transition enables instant settlement regardless of US or EU restrictions on correspondent banking.
Network congestion hit record levels as regional crisis demand sent transaction costs soaring. Average transaction fees climbed to $44 per transfer and local exchange volumes broke previous highs, peaking at $310 million daily, according to Decrypt.
Negotiation Route
According to The National, Qatar and Oman began mediation efforts almost immediately after the US canceled the planned strike, offering their services to broker direct US-Iran dialogue. Gulf members depend on oil for more than 70% of government income and urgently require safe Hormuz shipping to preserve fiscal stability. Diplomatic priorities shifted rapidly to securing an inspection and transit framework before further escalation. The US State Department aims to reach a technical monitoring agreement and sign-off on new protocols with EU mediators by May 22, aligning all parties around mutually acceptable terms.
Trump signaled a strike option after naval incidents on May 15, Gulf states made pleas for restraint on May 17, the stand-down and Iran’s crypto proposal emerged on May 18, and May 22 remains the soft target for EU-US-Iran technical agreement. Each of these steps has driven volatility in both oil and crypto markets, according to Cryptonews.net and The National. Forward markets already price in a $2 per barrel risk premium for crude, with no alternative shipping corridor available in the time frame.
Bitcoin down over 3% as Trump says 'massive' strike underway against Iran https://t.co/k8aCfwWaC4
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) February 28, 2026
Per cryptonews.net, Gulf energy ministers publicly support dialogue but warn about any digital platform granting Iran access to frozen assets. International regulators scrutinize each pilot closely, especially as insurance flows could involve sanctioned entities. data show a group of Asian and Middle Eastern firms will test Iran’s certificate blockchain for select voyages in June.
According to The National, insurers and shipping majors have contingency plans in place should negotiations collapse.
Bitcoin’s short-term path is tied to risk headlines:Geopolitical stress remains the immediate market driver for crypto and oil alike.
Iran’s Bitcoin platform aims for $10B annual revenue:Broader adoption depends on how without delay the shipping sector standardizes digital documentation. Analysts note that this target, if achieved, would mark a significant shift in sanctioned states’ economic strategies.
Watch oil prices above $100:Each $10 barrel move flips crypto sentiment between risk-off panic and rebound rallies. market data shows oil volatility has become the market’s primary sentiment driver this quarter.
Pilot blockchains could become a global model:Iran’s digital certificate system is already watched by other sanctioned states and shipping majors seeking alternative compliance rails. figures show multiple delegations have requested technical briefings.
Diplomacy sets the near-term course:Ceasefire breakthroughs could boost Bitcoin, while escalation risks sudden renewed flash crashes. published research shows positioning ahead of anticipated nuclear talks.
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This article is for informational purposes only. Always verify information independently before making any decisions.